rafael

It is a great privilege to have been invited by the APD to offer some reflections on the geopolitical challenges and the role of agriculture in this transformation in order to open a dialogue between friendly nations.

Humanity is facing enormous challenges in its historical transformation. We have transformed ourselves over the last 200 years. We went from a historical process where humanity had no more than one billion people to the current eight billion. This exponential evolution has its origins in three gigatrends.

• The first was the expansion and dissemination of knowledge. This began with Gutenberg around the year 1500, followed by the open-mindedness of the French Revolution and communication. From the telegraph to the mobile phone.
• The second gigatrend was the dominance of energy. We transitioned from firewood to oil, increasing its use in the form of electric propulsion for mobility.
• The third, as a consequence, was the population increase from 1 to 8 billion people. These three gigatrends introduced other megatrends to the world: urbanisation, globalisation, climate change, democratisation, global education, among others.

This acceleration of gigatrends in a living system can have, at the same time, limits to growth and growth of limits. Thus, humanity is expected to reach its population limit of 11 billion people by 2050. Some societies will already be in decline, while others will continue to grow. By then, energy consumption will increase, knowledge production will continue to accelerate, and will be co-managed by artificial intelligence, placing humanity at the limits of climate, food, and inequality.

The issues involving the survival of the world system, in its broadest sense, will no longer be a concern of a few nations, but of humanity as a whole. The big questions we ask are “how can we and how should we get there as a whole?”

Currently, part of the world, with democratic systems, wants to see an inclusive journey, in freedom and wealth sharing. Another part prefers autocratic, regulatory and more efficient systems, which are less participatory and democratic. Interests and values will clash, some for power, others for persuasion or interests. These will be the major agendas of the United Nations (UN), the COPs Climate Conferences, the G20s, the BRICs, among others.

Which new model of global governance will emerge from the current clashes between the US and the rest of the world? What will be Latin America’s participation in this game? How will we shape our sustained development? What will be our contribution to world peace and development, with social justice and freedom? These and other questions alike make me think, make me conceptualise, debate, and act.

With regard to thinking, considering the megatrends mentioned above, where will the world, with its 11 billion inhabitants, be heading? How could and should human intelligence contribute to this process? It certainly begins in the individual and collective imagination. In the formation of a shared intelligence that gives reason to the lowest common denominator. That is where the ultimate goal of achieving a shared lowest common denominator begins. It is in this imagination that I place a high bet on human beings. Everything we have accomplished was already being imagined long ago, from our daily lives to our plans, except catastrophes or the unexpected. Therefore, building a supportive imagination is part of our noblest mission; talking about dreams, developing visions, and sharing opportunities and risks, within families, communities, countries, and in the world.

Giga and Megatrends in Agriculture

Let me wander regarding what we can and should consider the contribution of Agriculture, in global terms, and how we can make a difference for humanity. To begin with, I no longer call our world a “planet” after recognising that planets have no life (as far as we know) and that we have the world, because we have life in it, and that makes all the difference.

According to Greek mythology, the goddess who conceived the world is called Gaia. She gave birth to all others, born out of chaos. Her name is the origin of the current sciences, whose names begin with geo (Geography, Geology, among many others) from the study of Gaia.

Therefore, the study of the world, where life was and is made, is the foundation of reflections. I will begin — as a lover of agriculture, I will use the hectare as a unit of measure — with the big numbers of the world: 50 billion hectares, of which 2/3 are made up of water and 1/3 of land. Of that 1/3, around 15 billion hectares are arable. Again, we have 1/3 — the rest includes deserts, glaciers, natural forests, cities, etc. This corresponds to a universe of approximately 5 billion hectares of arable land in the world. These 5 billion hectares are the focus of all the reasoning that follows.

Those 5 billion arable hectares are represented today by:

• 2/3 of pastures = 3.3 billion hectares.
• Approximately 30% = 1.5 billion hectares of areas for agriculture;
• Approximately 3% = 0.2 billion hectares of perennial forests — fruit trees, rubber, etc.

Currently, 8 billion people consume 10 billion tonnes (Gt) of agricultural products. Of these 10 Gt of products, 60% (6 Gt) are food, while 40% (4 Gt) are non-food, equivalent to: fibres, fuels, rubber, inputs, etc.

The 10 largest agricultural producers, which use 55% of the world’s 1.5 Gt of arable land, are:

Approximately 60% of global agricultural production consists of wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, beans, rapeseed, and sugarcane, in that order. The highest productivity per hectare per year is found in sugarcane production (6,000 t/ha), followed by sugar beet (4,700 t/ha) and tomatoes (2,500 t/ha). The production of other agricultural items is below these quantities. The highest profitability is from sugarcane ($300 billion), rice ($220 billion), corn ($140 billion), followed by wheat ($120 billion).

It is more interesting to look at the annual growth of crops in millions of tonnes (Mt). Sugarcane production is far ahead of the others, with a total of 1700 Mt, followed by corn (800 Mt), rice (700 Mt), and wheat (600 Mt).

These trends show that the area of food production is growing at a higher rate than the global economic growth, as are non-food crops, especially sugarcane. Sugarcane is used in food, sugar, and energy derivatives such as ethanol, replacing fossil fuels. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that the food production areas will grow beyond global economic growth. And perhaps this growth will be even stronger in the areas of non-food products, which may, before 2050, exceed the areas used for food production.

The challenges of contemporary agriculture

In the context of global agriculture, with regard to food and energy security, the challenge of climate change also arises. Agriculture is seen by the public as a problem. However, in reality, it is a huge contributor to the solutions to these challenges. If, in this context, we also include the fight against hunger and poverty, and agriculture, with its small and large producers, they play their part in social inclusion. Contemporary agriculture, when well done and managed, is part of the four challenges outlined above.

A country’s security begins not only with its political order and security, but also with policies that guarantee food, energy, and the well-being of its people. Until recently, each country or region took care of these security issues as a matter of sovereignty. However, it has gradually become more open through international cooperation. Nevertheless, the new times are not blowing in that direction, and geopolitical currents are returning to the old preferences of ideological alignments. But in a global, connected, and informed world, these contradictions will become even more important strategic alliances, as climate, hunger, and energy do not wait for ideologies, but for pragmatic and effective solutions based on knowledge grounded in science and technology with ethics.

The Power of the Tropics in Global Solutions

About 200 years ago, when immigrants who came to Brazil and South America initiated extensive agriculture, they applied their knowledge of the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate climate. One harvest, tilling the land, soil correction, and combating known pests were replaced by new knowledge, practices, and technologies. This resulted in three or more harvests per hectare per year, with previously unknown levels of productivity. This is what we call the “Power of the Tropics”, based on climate, soil and genetics that favour exponential growth. The Power of the Tropics boils down to recognising that photosynthetic power, responsible for plant development, is three times greater than in temperate climates. Here, innovations of all kinds come together.